April 29, 2010

      I wrote yesterday about a poll showing an anti-incumbent mood among the voters. There's another unusual factor at work this year--some candidates are switching parties. Florida's Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who's running for the Senate this year, is expected to do so as an independent because polls show him trailing a more conservative Republican in the primary.  John McCain, in Arizona, faces a more conservative Republican in that state's primary.  Could he go independent if he loses? Sure, why not--well-known, former presidential candidate and all that.      There's precedent.  Joe Lieberman of Connecticut lost his Democratic primary last time out.  As an independent, he won the election.  He's now in his fourth term .      But there's a danger for Republicans in all this.  The primary winner is likely to be the more conservative candidate--the Republicans are, after all, the more conservative party.  But in a general election, a more centrist candidate might do better.  If I were a Floridian and thought Crist had done a good job as governor, I'd probably vote for him whatever party label was attached to his name.  Same with McCain in Arizona.      The Republicans may well gain some seats, though.  Delaware Democrats thought they had  a good chance to hold Joe Biden's seat if his son Beau had run for it, but he didn't.  Republican Mike Castle, a Congressman and former governor, is now the favorite.      Well, as noted before, it should be a fun fall.
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